The Likely Future of the MLS & WUSA.

Sure youth and rec soccer are growing in America,

but does that guarantee adequate success for the

American Professional soccer leagues?Image Source:  a Steve Davis article on page 7C of the July 28,2004 issue of The Dallas Morning News.

 

After the 1999 season, the purists seized full control of the MLS, and in spite of

promises of greater purist support with the restoration of their beloved draw,

the MLS watched it's attendance decline further in 2000.  This failure is mirrored

in the college and high school attendance figures across the country, where

players can't even get their close friends to attend the games.

 

And while many maintain that:

"Soccer is exploding in America, and given a couple of generations Image Credit:  Brian Homewood's article "Going backwards" on pages 24-25 of the November 2004 issue of World Soccer magazine.  It was one of the best soccer articles I've read in a sports magazine.

   to catch up,  American soccer will be as huge as it is everywhere

   else in the world."

this kind of hype is just a little too reminiscent of the stuff that the

investment bankers were shoveling back during the "dot.com" era.

So before betting the family farm on 'football' futures, take a glance

to the right for an idea how the Brazilians support the 'religion' of

professional soccer, or feel free to peruse a prospectus on the

current condition of Scottish football at my page "Scottish1."

 

But, for the sake of discussion, let's put this aside and just go with the hype:

 

        "Soccer's big, and it can only get bigger."

 

I have my doubts that this explosion will translate into success for American pro soccer. 

By that time, instead of relying on pay-per-view to feed the purists' need for the English

Premiership, the future will likely hold multiple 'golf channel' type stations piping in not

only English soccer, but Italian, German, Spanish, French, Brazilian, Dutch, Mexican,

Argentine, and...well, you get the picture.  And the poor MLS  and WUSA will still have

dismal fan support.  Sound excessively gloomy?  Just consider a quote from Andy Dougan's

article in "FourFourTwo" magazine (August 2002, p.117) addressing today's Scottish

pro soccer reality:'Letters to the Editor' in response to Dallas Morning News' Kevin Blackistone's article on the scoreless final two games of the 1999 Women's World Cup.  One by Russell Willerton of Carrollton, Texas, and one by yours truly.

 

          "There are too many distractions now for fair-weathered fans; it's too easy

          to stay in and watch a game on Sky or a Champions League match."

 

So it looks like my prediction for American soccer is already happening in Scotland.

 

To those who want to stand around, with their thumb up their butt, complacently pleading:

 

     "But the game is perfect.  Why can't you just leave it alone?"

 

Let's consider yet another prediction, this one from a respected authority on the game of

soccer, Keir Radnedge, Executive Editor of Britain's World Soccer magazine.  Quoting

from his commentary entitled "Welcome to the Next Crisis" (December 1999, p. 4):

 

     "So what will the next century bring?  One thing is for certain:  a crisis.  TV will

     grow tired of soccer and find a new toy.  The financial rocks on which the multi-

     million game presently rests will crumble.  Youth policies will come back into favor.

     Technique will continue to play second fiddle to physical fitness.  Very slowly,

     technological assistance will creep into the game; the public will demand it."

OK class, who's gonna argue with Mr. Radnedge's prophecy?  Not me, but I do wonder

why he'd put the consideration of "technological assistance" before consideration of

simple rules changes!?!  But if his words don't open your eyes and inspire you to at least

seriously contemplate the inherent advantages enjoyed by the defense, I don't know what

will.  And if you're a poor soul who has never felt the need to exercise his or her

contemplative muscles, then simply read again Mr. Radnedge's prediction, and this time

follow it with the obvious question which the soccer press seems so reluctant to tackle:

 

     What will be the likely cause of this big crisis?

 

As I see it, the answer can be found in the following choices:

 

1.  Culinary Extortion:  The price of ball park nachos and hot dogs go through the roof

       to cover the mega salaries and transfer fees, so the fans stay home and watch

       American "Reality TV."

2.  The Thug Effect:  As tattoos and shaven heads increase, interest in the game decreases,

       as matches more closely resemble a pickup game at some penitentiary (ie: the NBA).

3.  The Real Madrid Effect (aka The Chel-ski Effect):  Unable to compete with the 

       deep pockets and predatory pursuit of talent practiced by Real Madrid, but later

       perfected by Chelsea FC, soccer coaches reluctantly embrace the only strategy

       which has proven truly effective against the "Spanish Yankees" in championship play

       ...Italian Style Soccer.

Graphic Source:  World Soccer Magazine, July 2003

Quoting Sebastian Gay:  "Italian soccer is more tactical as seen in the more than boring (except if you are a Milan fan) CL final and semi-final rounds. For them, defense is always the first priority, while scoring is expected to follow on its own. The Italian clubs do their best to capitalize on the three or four scoring opportunities they receive each game, and then often hang back on defense. It is this style of dump-and-chase soccer that often leaves even the home fans yawning."       Graphic Source:  World Soccer Magazine, July 2003

 

I'm aware that the MLS's prospects have risen of late with the success of Landon and

Team USA in World Cup '02.  And I agree that Landon has a chance to one day

become the MLS's "Babe Ruth", but only if he remains in good health and remains HERE.

If you question Landon's elevation to near hero status, look over the following:

            ***** 2006 Regular Season MLS League Statistics *****
                             (Updated on October 15)
 
                            From The Sports Network
 
 TEAM ATTENDANCE REPORT
                               HOME GAMES                  ROAD GAMES
                        DATES      TOTAL  AVERAGE   DATES      TOTAL  AVERAGE
 Chicago Fire              16    225,775   14,111      16    213,650   13,353
 Chivas USA                16    317,432   19,840      16    235,605   14,725
 Colorado Rapids           16    192,894   12,056      16    246,340   15,396
 Columbus Crew             16    212,699   13,294      16    220,591   13,787
 FC Dallas                 16    239,714   14,982      16    264,307   16,519
 D.C. United               16    291,442   18,215      16    227,088   14,193
 Houston Dynamo            16    302,957   18,935      16    199,553   12,472
 Kansas City Wizards       16    177,322   11,083      16    225,194   14,075
 Los Angeles Galaxy        16    333,016   20,814      16    318,870   19,929
 New England Revolution    16    188,569   11,786      16    347,206   21,700
 New York Red Bulls        16    233,112   14,570      16    232,174   14,511
 Real Salt Lake            16    261,855   16,366      16    246,209   15,388
 MLS Totals               192  2,976,787   15,504     192  2,976,787   15,504

Image Credit:  The LA Daily News and The Sports Network

 

with a focus on the 'Road Games' category.  Away, Landon's Galaxy outdraws all teams

except Taylor Twellman's Revolution, but at home the Galaxy draws almost twice what

The Revolution can manage to get into their stadium, evidence of the Hispanic influence

which we Dallas Burn fans know all about.

 

Overall, the MLS talent pool is much more likely to be influenced by the infusion of highly

experienced defensive talent from the world's top professional soccer leagues.  Consider

Sam Pilger's article entitled "Another day, another giro" from the February 2003 issue of

FourFourTwo magazine, where on page 100 he quotes recently released Premiership and

Northern Ireland starter Ian Nolan on the restructuring of the professional roster:

 

     "Not long ago, clubs had squads of 24 players, but they're all trying to get by

          with about 18 players now."

It's no surprise to anyone that the 3 players studied in Mr Pilger's article are defenders:

Nolan is a full-back, Steven Clegg is a right-back, and Steve Harper is a left-back.

As defenders, these 3 can't find work in Britain even at bargain basement rates.Image Credit:  USA Today Monday May 23, 2005, Artists Quang Lam and Alejandro Gonzalez

 

From the purist's point of view, the MLS might benefit from the experience and

skills of these and other downsizing victims, but I feel that such imports would

only serve to dampen the offensive flame which has burned brighter with the

exploits of the youngsters Convey, Landon, and Twellman, and even not so young-

sters like former FC Dallas star Jason Kreis, the MLS' career leader in goals scored.

 

Now ask yourself what the result of a Team USA victory in World Cup '06 would mean

for the MLS?  Immediate validation for US talent?  Sure!  Ticker Tape parades before

hundred's of thousands of adoring (and curious) New Yorkers?  Of course!  Over the

short term it would mean great things for American soccer, but let's meditate on the

implications to the American Pro game.  All I can do is to draw parallels to things which

I know a little about...things like baseball and business.  We all agree that the baseball

which is played in Japan is not quite up to the high standard of that played here in the

good old USA.  Just as the MLS's play is at least a notch below that of the "Champions"

Leagues, say Italian Division One or the English Premiership.  Now picture a reality

where a Japanese team suddenly emerges from the pack and dominates the Japanese

game of baseball, enjoying a 90% victory rate and sweeps the Japanese Championship

Tournament in straight sets by lopsided margins, breaking strikeout, home run and RBI

records along the way.

 

Old George, sitting in his New York office, calls the Japanese Champions owner and

sets up 3 exhibition games, knowing that it will surely be billed:

 

     The Unofficial Championship of the World

 

Well the unthinkable happens.  The Yanks are thrashed in the first 2 games, and the 3rd

game is played anyway as a matter of courtesy, and the polite Japanese allow the Yanks

to win to insure they are invited back.

 

Here's where I'm going with this.  Put yourself in the shoes of the American MLB execs. 

Before you could say "double play" the agents of the most talented Japanese players

would be approached with offers to play on American teams.  Why?  Two reasons:

     1.  Greatly diminish the powerhouse Japanese team

     2.  Obtain a talented player

 

It's a win-win deal for the American baseball execs.

 

Now apply this little parable to the case of the Team USA which had just won the World Cup. 

The Execs of the European leagues would immediately place offers before the very best

American players, landing talent for their teams and leagues while making it more difficult for

the players to play--and near impossible to practice--with Team USA.

 

Another win-win proposition.

 

Mike "The Manipulator" Kimbro

 

To return, best to hit the BACK ARROW Button,

or   Visualize High Scoring Soccer  

Image Credit:  The Dallas Morning News.

PS - How frustrating can it be to support a soccer team in this time of low-to-no scoring?  At right you'll find the MLS standings at the time of the big MLS All-Star match against the mighty Chel-ski.  Our hometown favorites, the FC Dallas, are flying high, leading the Western Conference and 2nd in the MLS in points.

Time passes, now consider the following from a report filed by Kansas City's Greg Echlin:

Image Credit:  The Dallas Morning News, August 28, 2006, page 8C, from an article by Greg Echlin of Kansas City.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fun with Stats:  When blessed with a gold mine of information like this, let's reach for higher levels of enlightenment by digging a little deeper.  Since the All-Star Game, the two conference leaders were a combined 0-4-2, but if you know me at all you know that winning and loosing is meaningless to any discussion I will ever have.**  Look now at the 'Goals For' column, and realize that combined the conference leaders scored 3 total goals in six total MLS regular season matches.  Kinda makes you wonder:  Scooby Adu...where are you?!?

 

 

But keep in mind that the "3rd shutout" count only includes MLS Soccer League matches.  Note the date on the following 2006 US Open Cup match report filed by Houston's Ronnie Turner:

Image Credit:  The Dallas Morning News, Thursday August 24, 2006, page 12c, from an article by Houston's sportswriter Ronnie Turner entitled "Shutout by Dynamo ends FC Dallas' Open Cup run".

The reality is that our conference leading FC Dallas men's professional soccer team suffered FOUR consecutive shut-outs during that period.

This last image also happens to contain one very interesting quote, from The Hoop's Coach Colin Clarke:

"It was disappointing to give up a goal off a set play early on. There's no excuse for that."

Call me silly, but with the majority of soccer's goals coming off set pieces and penalty kicks, it seems like a funny thing to say.  I mean, just look at the following early goal from the final of the FIFA World Cup 2006, a match in which World Champion Italy attempted only 5 total shots in 120 minutes of play...


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Image Credit:   ABC Sports & FIFA

OK, maybe the parallel isn't all that obvious.  Even defensive powerhouse France, playing in the biggest match on the planet, can give up an early goal in exactly the same fashion (header off a corner kick from the right side) and 99.999999% of the soccer viewing population doesn't feel that:  "...there's no excuse for that." 

OK, save your e-mails.  I do realize that I'm unfairly picking on the FIFA World Cup.  Too much is at stake, every match is life or death, and a player could cost himself and his agent millions of dollars (and the chance to play and live in Italy!!!) with one single little mistake in a World Cup match.  You can't expect entertaining soccer to come out of such an environment.

So regular season league matches should be played in a much looser reality, one which lends itself to the coach motivating the boys with a:

  "...now let's get out there and kick their asses, and have a little fun while we do it!!!"

Unfortunately, the proliferation of the meaningless rivalry cups (The Brimstone Cup, etc.) are being used by coaches to justify the old "We're up a goal, now let's just protect that lead" mentality.  I'm for doing away with all rivalry cups, as fans already appreciate a good derby...where one truly exists.

But for now, I'll continue to support 'The Hoops'...oh yeah, and 'The Gunners' too.

 

** In the mind of an eccentric, winning is so overrated.  Consider my unanimous choice...over Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman and Johnny Unitas...for favorite NFL Quarterback.  Sure he was a college All-American at Georgia, and he did have the intellect to call virtually all of his own plays, and he could hold on to the ball for more than 2.5 seconds because he was as evasive as Zidane, and he had the cool to be looking up field for the long pass even as he was being pursued by far bigger players, and he took his team to 3 Super Bowls, and did I mention that he called his own plays.  The name of this football god:  Fran Tarkenton!!!  Doubtful?  I'll bet that the good folks at NFL films could provide 400 examples in which Tarkenton's brains, athleticism, toughness, vision, durability and 'grace under pressure' not only prevented a loss, but resulted in at least a '1st and goal' ball placement.  Now that's what I call entertainment.  Most quarterbacks are lucky if they have 40 such memories, and many can't remember the last time they were flushed out of the pocket and then didn't immediately throw the ball away or run for the sidelines.  To hell with that, as Tarkenton even had a year in which he ranked in the NFL's Top Ten in both Passing TD's and Rushing TD's!!!

Yes indeed, if I ever go to work on the rules of the NFL I'd go with changes intended to create an environment where quarterbacks and athleticism are more commonly used in the same sentence, as with Atlanta's Michael Vick, and calling your own plays involves more than the infamous "attack, attack, attack" gimmick play.  But that play totally supports my point, as fans are so starved for something outside the ordinary that they feel that Manning's gimmick play is an example of creative football.  I see it as akin to Ron Jaworski's infamous "take the ball from the center and then immediately pivot and hurl it over a wide receiver's head" play, which earned The Eagles so many easy 1st downs over the years.  So you ask: "What's the difference between good football and a gimmick play?"  The answer is found in the following questions:

#1 Do you really feel the play is consistent with the true spirit of football?

#2 Do you really want every quarterback in the NFL using that play multiple times during every game?

If the answer is NO to either question, then you need to face the fact that you're dealing with a gimmick play...and it's gotta go...just as Jaworski's brain child was eliminated by the NFL's rule allowing contact with receivers for the first 5 yards from the line of scrimmage.

Or better still, quarterbacks might simply ask themselves the question represented by the following letters:

---------------   W   --   W   --   T   --   D   --------------------

That's right, baby!  What would Tarkenton do?      ;~)

Image Credit:  The newspaper USA Today, Tuesday September 19, 2006, from article titled "Not-so-fun sunday for quarterbacks,who were sacked 86 times" by Chris Colston

Image Credit: The Dallas Morning News, Sunday September 17, 2006, page 15C, from article by Rick Gosselin entitled "Brad Johnson can't win, but does"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Personally, I'll take 'crazy ball' any day.

 

 

Update November 2007:

For those of you in who can't quite get a handle on where the MLS is financially, check out the following little expose in the September 2007 issue of Britain's Loaded Magazine on the LA Galaxy's 2007 Visa Defender of the Year, Ty Harden: