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December 15, 2006 - The evening started like so many others, in spite of the fact that the temperature at 7pm here in Dallas was still 65 degrees...in mid-December. I got off work thinking that there might be a small chance that the new soccer magazines might be out on the shelf over at Barnes and Nobles in Southlake. And I was half right, "World Soccer, The Essential Football Magazine" had been updated **, but no "FourFourTwo" was to be found. But that was where I hit the jackpot, as this left enough funds in my wallet to consider the purchase of the most expensive sports magazine on the planet:
Global Economics 101: If there is anyone out there who doesn't have a handle on what the falling dollar means to the average soccer fan, the following should put it in terms that all can understand:
At left is the price tag of "Champions Magazine, The Official magazine of the UEFA Champions League" in December 2006. Contrast that $12.50 to the $9.95 on this price tag from back in February 2004.
Why is this important? Because if the falling Dollar is responsible for making a British magazine 25% more expensive, just think what it's doing to affect FC Dallas' ability to bring over an aging European superstar to fill in our 'designated player' slot.
This is fresh in my mind only because the FC Dallas organization threw a thank you party for it's supporter's group, "The Hoops Nation", a week ago Monday evening. The timing was perfect, as earlier that very afternoon Steve Morrow had been presented to the press as our new Head Coach. To his credit, Steve was there during the entire party, breaking bread with the common man, and talking one-on-one with all comers.
After getting my fill of delicious Pizza Hut pizza and cold beer, I took my turn with Coach Morrow, politely limiting the discussion to:
Anyway...what was my point here? Oh yeah, with the falling Dollar, it's gonna be harder for us to go after that European talent.
But not to worry, as we can still get a favorable exchange rate when buying the Guatemalan Quetzal. So I'm thinking that Hoops Coach Morrow and General Manager Hitchcock would be better served spending the off-season scouring the rain forests of Central America in search of the next Carlos Ruiz. I'm just hoping they don't get carried away while they're down there. I mean, I wouldn't want them to do anything which might increase the ticket prices.
OK, don't get me wrong here, I'm not totally cheap. If Barca wants to loan us Ronaldinho, well then maybe I'd go for a $5.00 ticket price hit. Let's do the math:
$5 per seat x 25,000 seats = $125,000 x 32 matches = $4,000,000 / year
OK, I'm a team player, so what can I do to make this happen? Here's my proposition:
Mr. Hitchcock, if you pull off a $4,000,000 per year loan of Ronaldinho, I'll pay $5 more per ticket.
Just don't ask me to wear a jersey with his name on it. I have to draw the line somewhere, and a Ronaldinho jersey is just too generic for my tastes.
Frankly, I'm hoping that Santa brings me something which says "serious soccer fan", like an Arsenal home jersey with Fabregas' name on the back. It should perfectly compliment those aqua "curve-hugging velvet jeans" which are recommended at right in my personal astrological assessment by Susan Miller, official astrologer for InStyle magazine:
And hey, don't bother e-mailing me around the 26th of January, because if Ms. Miller is correct, I'll be a little busy.
OK, enough chit-chat! I didn't bring you here to discuss world monetary theory, or unique fashion preferences.
"STATS ARE FOR WIMPS." - G. M. 2006
First order of business is to get your hands on a copy of the December/January 2007 issue of "Champions" magazine.
If you can write this off as a business expense, then the $12.50 plus tax might not be so painful.
Next, if your IQ is at 75 or below, flip over to page 15 where you can get a good laugh at the expense of Fabian Barthez.
Then, proceed directly to page 58, where sportswriter Paul Simpson provides us with "The Statistical Breakdown": ***
Folks, you have to read this article in it's entirety, but allow me to present to you the most important items:
But earlier in the article there's the even more important disclosure:
And the other subtitles are just as interesting:
1. Does finishing top of the group mean your are more likely to win the UEFA Champions League?
2. How important is a clean sheet? (Interesting for it's focus on the performance of Man. U.'s Peter Schmichel during the 1999 campaign.)
3. If a team shoot more often are they more likely to score a goal?
4. Everyone talks about home advantage, but how crucial is away form in Europe?
6. How vital is scoring first? (Even I was amazed!)
Title Below: Winning Soccer, circa 2003
Source: World Soccer Magazine, July 2003
Motivational Assessment: Seriously, y'all are mostly soccer journalists, right? Let's pretend that your muse has just blessed you with the inspiration to pen a article which makes a case for the Champions League becoming one of the most defensively oriented sports leagues on the planet, this side of a high school chess club, including clear statistical evidence to back it up. You obsessively throw yourself into the endeavor, producing a masterpiece for the ages.
OK, great job Steinbeck, now let me hit you with the next obvious question: Who are you going to submit that article to?
It gets a little sticky at this point, doesn't it. There's no way that any editor of a respected soccer publication would pay you good money for that. I mean, you might as well submit to the New England Journal of Medicine a little study on the frequency that doctors sleep with members of their support staff.
So why is Paul Simpson so different here? Because Mr. Simpson is the managing editor at "Champions Magazine." But we all know that considerable strings go along with working at a publication whose subtitle is:
Yes indeed, Mr. Simpson answers directly to the big dogs over at UEFA:
Lars-Christer Olsson and Markus Studer
Voila!
Ladies and gentlemen, I'm thinking that this is nothing short of a CRY FOR HELP from none other than UEFA, the 2nd more important football authority on our planet. UEFA sees the entertainment value of their product plunging, and they have commissioned Paul Simpson to explain the situation in terms comprehensible by even the most extreme of knuckleheads.
Why? Because this is quite likely the ultimate example of the old saying:
Be careful what you ask for, you might just get it.
It takes no imagination to picture a time back in the 60's and 70's when UEFA dreamed of one day elevating the Champions League to a plateau from which it looked down on the FIFA World Cup. Well folks, we are there. Admittedly, this isn't so for the majority of fans or players, but in Europe there's no arguing with the fact that Champions League supremacy is absolutely, positively true for the coaches and team management and team owners, and I'm thinking the superstars as well.
The money earned by those lucky 8 teams who make it to the quarterfinals is awesome. But the increase in status paid by the press to those who ascend to the top of Europe is off the scale.
If you doubt this, go back to the "World Soccer" issue which reported Porto's UEFA Cup Championship victory over Celtic. This was the Debutants Ball for what was then the newest superstar in the game of soccer:
Coach Jose Mourinho
While you don't have to be an Arsenal fan to see what's going on here, it certainly helps. The emphasis on Champions League success has dragged The Gunners down from the free wheeling "pass me the ball so I can score a goal" offensive showcase of the 2003-04 season to the defensive minded "that shot should have never been taken" machine of the 2005-06 season. And there's little doubt that today's team would beat the 2003-04 team...by a score of 2-1. A missed opportunity in my mind, but to those who embrace the attitude "it's sufficient result to prove, on that day, which was the best side", it would likely be the match of the millennium.
Mr. Simpson's article is an open letter to FIFA President Sepp Blatter and the other members of the upcoming symposium, encouraging FIFA to take what steps are required to correct the situation.
If this doesn't inspire all you soccer scribes out there to take my "call to contemplation" seriously, I don't know what will.
Again, the changes are coming, and more goals will be the result. What I'm trying to accomplish with my page "A Plea 4 Leadership" is to insure that FIFA knows what results we Americans expect the changes to produce.
What do I mean by that? I seem to be able to communicate this best by encouraging folks to take a look at two distinctly different futures of football by comparing these imaginary lists of World Cup 'Golden Shoe Finalists'.
Do you want soccer to be driven by forwards and midfielders, or by midfielders and defenders...and goalkeepers? That's the crucial question.
You already know that:
"offense sells tickets, defense wins trophies!"
Just compare the 4 goals on the left with the 4 goals on the right, and decide which should account for the majority of goals in a 3-2, 4-3, or even the occasional 6-4 environment.
No video? Get the DivX Web Player for Windows or Mac
No video? Get the DivX Web Player for Windows or Mac
No video? Get the DivX Web Player for Windows or Mac
No video? Get the DivX Web Player for Windows or Mac
No video? Get the DivX Web Player for Windows or Mac
No video? Get the DivX Web Player for Windows or Mac
No video? Get the DivX Web Player for Windows or Mac
When considering that last masterpiece at left realize that, with larger goals, the shot would have been taken well before it reached Rooney. This is the crux of my campaign.
Come on people, get in the game! The stakes are too high to be passive-aggressive on this issue. We're talking about the SOUL of soccer here.
If you want midfielders and defenders to be routinely shooting at the goal from 25 to 35 yards out, you might want to get behind William R. Mattox Jr.'s idea to place a higher value on longer shots, or you can simply take a stand for larger goals and be done with it. Either way, I can promise you that Frank Lampard and Steve Gerrard would love to see these changes made.
If 'set piece soccer' is what turns you on, with towering defenders heading in corner kicks and free kicks for the majority of the game's goals, embrace changes which encourage corner kicks and fouling.
But if you'd rather encourage more offensive creativity, you'd better come to Jesus on the fact that it ain't gonna happen unless FIFA somehow discourages (not eliminates) the defense's two primary weapons...the double team, and the slide-tackle. You can't have it both ways.
Either way, contribute now, or forever hold your peace.
Mike "just some guy" Kimbro
Go to: Visualize Higher Scoring Outdoor Soccer Kimbro's Home Page
** That "World Soccer" issue did have an interesting article by Keir Radnedge about new and improved officiating environment over in Italy, including mention of Iternazionale's 4-3 win over AC Milan. Wow!
But Jim Holden's article "Ducking and diving" treated diving as the affliction, not the symptom of a more chronic condition. I run into this daily when discussing soccer with casual sports fans here in America. I assure them that when scoring is increased up to the 4-3 or 5-3 level, diving will be reduced to an annoyance which is much more easily treated...and possibly cured.
*** Timing is everything: Just a few months earlier, the August/September 2006 issue of UEFA's Champions magazine featured what was truly a smorgasbord of statistics. In the article "The 50 Best Strikers," Champions editor Paul Simpson has provided something for everyone. The simpler reader might come away thinking that the article's underlying purpose was to set high our expectations for Chelsea's recent Ukrainian acquisition...
...while the more sophisticated reader also realized that this was published immediately after the Italian soccer scandal broke. Personally, as an Arsenal fan, I couldn't help but focus on the 37 free kicks won by my boy Reyes, while a less threatening striker, like Makaay of Bayern Munich, won only 2 free kicks in his 618 minutes. And yes, I'm aware of the perverse school of thought which believes that any player who controls the ball for more than 3 seconds simply must be fouled.
In defense of the defense, their reality is currently governed by the formula:
P = 9 * T + [ 2 * ( T - 1) ( T - 2) ( T - 3) ]
where P = Percentage chance the defender will be looked upon as "Goat of the Week" in highlight footage if he's scored upon during that possession.
and where T = Time in seconds that the ball is controlled by the player possessing the ball prior to taking a shot which results in a goal.
Do the math, and realize that they simply must foul ASAP or risk, not only be blamed for giving up the crucial goal of the match, but be the laughing stock of the league as well. And why not foul, since there's no maximum number of fouls a player can accrue before getting tossed from the match.
If you'll allow yourself the simple pleasure of watching Reyes in action in the following video, you'll see why smart defenders would foul him or pay the price:
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PS - And if you doubt that the MLS has a unique challenge, take another look at those stats. French football may be able to survive with 2.13 goals per match, but the MLS would have to close it's doors it we got to that level here in America.
PSS - On February 12, 2007 I followed up with the following e-mail to the members of the soccer press whose addresses are know to me:
Subject: UEFA cleans house...within six weeks of editor's statistical disclosure
CHEERS!